District of Columbia Office
of the Chief Financial Officer (OCFO)
$2B+
in combined development value analyzed across District redevelopment projects
spanning waterfront mixed-use,
transit-oriented, municipal, and cultural real estate
5 Projects
30-Year
tax revenue & debt-service models built
to support District bond financing
Providing Independent Real Estate & Tax Revenue Analysis for the District of Columbia's Major Redevelopment Projects
Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets is responsible for attracting global investment into Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), a critical source of liquidity for the U.S. housing finance system. A key tool supporting this mission is the Global Markets Analysis Report, a monthly publication that provides investors and stakeholders with timely insight on global financial conditions, mortgage market trends, and U.S. housing developments. Since 2022, Emax has been part of the team supporting the monthly production and enhancement of this report.
Challenge
As the District pursued large, complex redevelopment and reuse projects financed through tax increment bonds, public-private partnerships, and District capital contributions, the OCFO needed an independent capability to test whether developer assumptions and financing plans would truly deliver for DC taxpayers. This required a partner able to:
Verify that projected sales and property tax revenues were sufficient to cover debt service on tax increment financing (TIF) bonds
Independently stress-test developer pro formas, construction schedules, and absorption assumptions across residential, retail, office, and hospitality asset classes
Evaluate alternative use, rehabilitation, and demolition scenarios for aging District-owned properties
Incorporate shifting market conditions — including the impacts of COVID-19 — into long-term revenue and debt-service projections
Deliver clear, well-documented analysis that could withstand scrutiny in high-profile public financing decisions
Approach
Emax's support to the District has centered on four core components:
Independent Tax Revenue & Debt Service Analysis: Built 30-year models estimating incremental sales and property tax revenue by project, parcel, and phase, then compared those projections against proposed debt service to confirm coverage — as performed for The Wharf's Phase I and Phase II financing.
Pro Forma & Market Analysis: Reviewed developer assumptions on construction schedules, absorption rates, leasing rates, and construction costs against independent research on market rents, vacancy, and development pipelines, reconciling any differences in methods or assumptions.
Alternative Use & Cost-Benefit Analysis: Evaluated rehabilitation, demolition, and redevelopment scenarios for District-owned assets such as the Reeves Center, weighing financial costs against public benefit to recommend the option delivering the greatest value to DC residents.
Impact
Emax's sustained support has given the District's OCFO confidence in the financial soundness of its largest redevelopment commitments and has informed public financing decisions with independently verified analysis. Key outcomes include:
Verified sufficiency of projected tax revenues to support the District's up to $198M contribution to The Wharf's $2 billion mixed-use waterfront development
Delivered independent, defensible tax and financial models across 5 major redevelopment projects spanning residential, retail, office, hospitality, and cultural uses
Informed the District's cost-benefit decision-making for the 480,000-GSF Reeves Center through detailed rehabilitation-versus-demolition analysis
Supported the successful relocation and expansion of the International Spy Museum, including independent review of a $120 million redevelopment
